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Growth of Hispanic Population Has Far-Reaching Implications

 

MIAMI (By Miguel Enesco) January 1, 2004 - America's Hispanic community emerged as the largest U.S. minority in 2004, with 39 million people and rising on an influx of immigrants, in a demographic shift with far-reaching economic and political effects.

The number of Hispanics has surged from 22.3 million in 1990 to 38.8 million in 2002, according to the Census Bureau. The figure for 2004 is expected to top 40 million.

That means 13 percent of the U.S. population has Hispanic origins.

Over the next two decades, as immigrants have more children on U.S. soil, the number is expected to near 60 million people, said Jeffrey Passel, a demographer and recent author of a study by the Pew Hispanic Center.

Between 2000 and 2020, the number of second generation Hispanics in U.S. schools will double, and the figure in the country's labor market will triple, said the study released in October.

Despite the formidable demographic weight of Hispanics in the United States, they have yet to find equivalent economic or political power, according to Antonio Jorge, economics professor at the International University of Florida (FIU).

Two thirds of U.S. Hispanics are Mexicans. Another 15 percent come from Central America, 10 percent from the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico, and four percent from Cuba.

The wealth generated by U.S. Hispanics is calculated at 800 billion dollars -- more than the gross domestic product of Mexico or Brazil but only seven percent of America's GDP.

The Hispanic population here is young -- one in three are younger than 18. They tend to have little formal education and modest incomes, according to the Census.

One in three have no medical insurance, and one in eight are in the country illegally.

Average earnings are lower than those of non-Hispanic Americans. Hispanics also have only small connection to national politics.

None of the 100 U.S. senators is Hispanic, and only about 20 of the 435 representatives in the lower house of Congress are Hispanic -- possibly because as a block, voter turnout is low.

About six million Hispanic voters cast ballots in the 2000 presidential election won by President George W. Bush. Pollsters predict more than seven million will vote in next year's polls.

"Most of them are Democrats," said Jorge, noting that Republicans were making "a noteworthy effort" to capture the Hispanic vote, and with some success.

Actor and moderate Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger won the governor's seat in California, a state with a large Hispanic population.

Hispanics could also play a key electoral role in Florida, the state that controversially decided the outcome of the 2000 vote.

The 400,000 staunchly anti-Castro Cuban voters in the state cast their ballots en masse for Bush, contributing to his razor thin victory by just a 500-vote margin.

 

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